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RUSCritical

Russia

Europe|Eastern Europe
Overall risk score
92/100
Trade volume (CAD)
$300M
Risk tier
Critical
Trade relationship
Severely restricted by comprehensive sanctions
RISK FACTOR BREAKDOWN
Political risk95

Authoritarian state engaged in a full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine. Subject to comprehensive allied sanctions. Bilateral diplomatic relations are at their lowest point in history. Any engagement carries severe reputational and legal risks.

Economic risk85

Large economy adapting to comprehensive sanctions through import substitution and reorientation toward China and India. Oil and gas revenue has been partially sustained despite price caps. Long-term structural decline is accelerating due to isolation from Western technology and capital.

Regulatory risk95

Regulatory environment is effectively hostile to Western firms. Asset seizures, forced sales, and legal restrictions on foreign companies have been enacted. Rule of law is not reliable for foreign interests. Sanctions compliance obligations are severe.

Supply chain risk95

Supply chains with Russia are effectively severed for sanctioning nations. Russian commodity exports (energy, metals, fertilizers) are subject to price caps, import bans, and sanctions. Firms must ensure no indirect Russian-origin inputs enter their supply chains.

Currency risk90

Russian ruble is not freely convertible under sanctions. Financial transactions with Russian counterparties are prohibited or heavily restricted. SWIFT disconnection and frozen central-bank reserves have severed normal financial channels.

TRADE AGREEMENTS

No bilateral or multilateral trade agreements on file.

TARIFF EXPOSURE

Not applicable — comprehensive sanctions override tariff considerations. Canada has revoked Russia's MFN status and applies a 35% General Tariff on any permitted imports. Most trade is prohibited outright.

STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS

Russia is effectively a sanctioned jurisdiction for Canadian firms. Comprehensive sanctions prohibit most trade and investment. Firms with any historical exposure must ensure full compliance with Canadian, US, and EU sanctions regimes. Indirect supply-chain exposure (through third countries) is the primary remaining compliance risk and requires active monitoring.

SECTOR VULNERABILITIES

Key sectors exposed to risk in the Russia trade corridor

  1. 1

    Energy (sanctioned)

  2. 2

    Metals (restricted)

  3. 3

    Fertilizers (partial exemptions)

  4. 4

    Financial services (severed)

TRADE FLOWS
Key exports to Canada
  • Fertilizers (limited)
  • Mineral products (restricted)
  • Diamonds (banned)
  • Metals (restricted)
Key imports from Canada
  • Virtually nil — comprehensive export controls in effect
OTHER COUNTRIES IN EUROPE
GBRLow

United Kingdom

17/100$32B
DEULow

Germany

16/100$24B
FRALow

France

18/100$14B
ITALow

Italy

22/100$10B
NLDLow

Netherlands

12/100$12B
BELLow

Belgium

15/100$8B

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