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TURHigh

Turkey

Middle East|Western Asia
Overall risk score
55/100
Trade volume (CAD)
$4.5B
Risk tier
High
Trade relationship
Moderate bilateral trade; no FTA
RISK FACTOR BREAKDOWN
Political risk60

Presidential republic with significant power concentrated in the executive. Democratic backsliding, media restrictions, and judicial-independence concerns are well-documented. NATO membership provides institutional anchoring but foreign-policy positions are increasingly independent.

Economic risk55

Large, diversified economy with significant manufacturing and construction sectors. Chronic macroeconomic instability driven by unorthodox monetary policy has created persistent high inflation, currency depreciation, and business uncertainty.

Regulatory risk55

Regulatory environment has become less predictable under executive centralization. Customs-union arrangement with the EU provides some tariff benefits but does not cover agriculture or services. Arbitrary regulatory actions affect investor confidence.

Supply chain risk45

Strategic geographic position bridging Europe and Asia. Growing manufacturing base in automotive, textiles, and defense. Infrastructure is modern. Geopolitical positioning creates both opportunities and risks for supply-chain routing.

Currency risk65

Turkish lira has experienced severe, sustained depreciation driven by unorthodox monetary policy. Inflation has been persistently high. Currency risk is among the most significant for any G20 economy. Hedging costs are prohibitive for long tenors.

TRADE AGREEMENTS

No bilateral or multilateral trade agreements on file.

TARIFF EXPOSURE

Moderate — no bilateral FTA. Turkey's EU customs union provides some alignment on industrial tariffs but does not apply to agricultural products, which are a key Canadian export category (lentils, pulses). MFN tariffs on non-covered goods are significant.

STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS

Turkey is a significant market for Canadian pulses (the largest lentil buyer globally) and a NATO ally with strategic geographic importance. However, macroeconomic instability, democratic governance concerns, and unpredictable foreign policy create an operating environment that requires active risk management. The absence of an FTA limits market-access improvement opportunities.

SECTOR VULNERABILITIES

Key sectors exposed to risk in the Turkey trade corridor

  1. 1

    Agriculture (pulses)

  2. 2

    Automotive

  3. 3

    Mining

  4. 4

    Defense

TRADE FLOWS
Key exports to Canada
  • Vehicles
  • Iron & steel
  • Machinery
  • Textiles
Key imports from Canada
  • Coal
  • Pulses (lentils)
  • Mineral ores
  • Machinery
KEY INDUSTRIES

Canadian industries connected to Turkey trade flows

ManufacturingCritical

Automotive Manufacturing

92/100$16B
ManufacturingHigh

Industrial Machinery & Equipment

52/100$9.2B
ManufacturingModerate

Textile & Apparel Manufacturing

38/100$2.8B
OTHER COUNTRIES IN MIDDLE EAST
SAUModerate

Saudi Arabia

45/100$5B
ARELow

United Arab Emirates

24/100$4B
ISRModerate

Israel

38/100$3B

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