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SAUModerate

Saudi Arabia

Middle East|Western Asia
Overall risk score
45/100
Trade volume (CAD)
$5B
Risk tier
Moderate
Trade relationship
Significant energy and defense trade; no FTA
RISK FACTOR BREAKDOWN
Political risk55

Absolute monarchy undergoing significant social and economic transformation under Vision 2030. Bilateral relations with Canada have been volatile, including a 2018 diplomatic crisis. Human-rights concerns constrain deeper engagement. Regional security dynamics (Yemen, Iran) are persistent.

Economic risk35

Large, oil-dependent economy undergoing ambitious diversification under Vision 2030. Sovereign-wealth fund (PIF) is a major global investor. Non-oil GDP growth is strengthening but oil revenue remains the fiscal backbone.

Regulatory risk50

Regulatory environment is modernizing rapidly but remains opaque in many areas. Commercial-law reforms are significant. Arbitrary decision-making risk exists. Foreign-investment restrictions are being relaxed in targeted sectors.

Supply chain risk40

Major global crude-oil exporter and growing petrochemicals producer. Infrastructure is modern. Logistics hub ambitions through NEOM and Red Sea projects. Regional security risks can affect shipping through the Red Sea corridor.

Currency risk20

Saudi riyal is pegged to the US dollar, providing currency stability. The peg is well-defended by massive foreign-exchange reserves. Currency risk is effectively USD risk.

TRADE AGREEMENTS

No bilateral or multilateral trade agreements on file.

TARIFF EXPOSURE

Moderate — no FTA; GCC common external tariff applies. Saudi Arabia's tariff rates are generally moderate but non-tariff barriers (standards, procurement preferences) can be significant. Localization requirements under Vision 2030 are increasing.

STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS

Saudi Arabia is a complex partner for Canada — economically significant but politically sensitive due to human-rights concerns and a history of diplomatic friction. Vision 2030 diversification creates substantial commercial opportunities in infrastructure, technology, and services, but firms must navigate reputational risks and regulatory complexity.

SECTOR VULNERABILITIES

Key sectors exposed to risk in the Saudi Arabia trade corridor

  1. 1

    Energy (petroleum)

  2. 2

    Defense

  3. 3

    Infrastructure

  4. 4

    Agriculture

TRADE FLOWS
Key exports to Canada
  • Crude petroleum
  • Petrochemicals
  • Fertilizers
  • Aluminum
Key imports from Canada
  • Vehicles
  • Machinery
  • Cereals
  • Electrical equipment
KEY INDUSTRIES

Canadian industries connected to Saudi Arabia trade flows

ManufacturingCritical

Automotive Manufacturing

92/100$16B
ManufacturingCritical

Steel & Aluminum Production

95/100$7.5B
ManufacturingHigh

Industrial Machinery & Equipment

52/100$9.2B
OTHER COUNTRIES IN MIDDLE EAST
ARELow

United Arab Emirates

24/100$4B
ISRModerate

Israel

38/100$3B
TURHigh

Turkey

55/100$4.5B

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