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ManufacturingCriticalNAICS 3364

Aerospace Manufacturing

Aircraft & Parts|Updated 2025-04-15
Tariff impact score
72/100
GDP contribution
$28B
Employment
90,000 direct jobs
Trade flow
Export-heavy
US trade exposure
60% of exports to US
Tariff impact score72
KEY PRODUCTS
  • Regional jet airframes
  • Landing gear systems
  • Flight simulators
  • Turbine engine components
  • Avionics systems
  • Composite aerostructures
AFFECTED TARIFF CODES
8802880388059014
MITIGATION STRATEGIES
  1. 1

    Expand defence industrial cooperation agreements with NATO allies

  2. 2

    Develop indigenous MRO capabilities to reduce US service dependencies

  3. 3

    Pursue dual-certification (FAA/EASA) to de-risk market concentration

  4. 4

    Invest in advanced composite and additive manufacturing capabilities

  5. 5

    Strengthen IP protection frameworks for Canadian-developed technologies

CUSMA IMPACT

Aerospace benefits from bilateral defence procurement agreements and largely escapes CUSMA auto-specific rules. However, dual-use components face classification disputes that can trigger Section 232-style tariffs. Canadian aerospace firms rely on US defence primes for approximately 40% of subcontract revenue.

SUPPLY CHAIN RISK

Montreal and Winnipeg aerospace clusters depend on seamless cross-border movement of ITAR-controlled components. Export control tightening or Buy American provisions in US defence spending directly reduce Canadian subcontractor access. Single-source dependencies on US-supplied avionics and propulsion systems create bottleneck risks.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Canada ranks fifth globally in aerospace production, behind the US, France, UK, and Germany. Bombardier's pivot to business aviation and CAE's simulation dominance provide niche strengths. Competition from Brazil's Embraer and emerging Turkish and Korean manufacturers pressures the regional aircraft segment.

OUTLOOK

Post-pandemic recovery in commercial aviation drives demand for Canadian-made regional aircraft and simulators. Defence spending increases across NATO create opportunities, but Buy American pressures may limit Canadian supplier access. The sector's long-term health depends on securing positions in next-generation sustainable aviation programs.

OTHER INDUSTRIES IN MANUFACTURING
Vehicle AssemblyCritical

Automotive Manufacturing

92/100$16B
Primary MetalsCritical

Steel & Aluminum Production

95/100$7.5B
Plastics ProductsHigh

Plastics & Rubber Manufacturing

58/100$11B
Machinery ManufacturingHigh

Industrial Machinery & Equipment

52/100$9.2B
Electronic ComponentsModerate

Electronics Manufacturing

48/100$6.8B
Basic Chemicals & PetrochemicalsHigh

Chemical Manufacturing

61/100$14.5B

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