INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

Industry impact analysis.

Tariff and trade risk assessment across Canadian industries. Each profile includes impact scoring, GDP contribution, supply chain exposure, and strategic mitigation strategies for businesses and policymakers.

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Industries
40
Sectors
7
Critical risk
7
Avg tariff impact
46/100
BY RISK TIER

Agriculture

6 industries · avg impact 49/100

Energy

6 industries · avg impact 53/100

Forestry & Fishing

3 industries · avg impact 58/100

Manufacturing

12 industries · avg impact 61/100
Manufacturing · Vehicle AssemblyCritical

Automotive Manufacturing

ExportGDP $16B
Tariff impact
92/100
Trade flow
Export-heavy
Manufacturing · Aircraft & PartsCritical

Aerospace Manufacturing

ExportGDP $28B
Tariff impact
72/100
Trade flow
Export-heavy
Manufacturing · Primary MetalsCritical

Steel & Aluminum Production

ExportGDP $7.5B
Tariff impact
95/100
Trade flow
Export-heavy
Manufacturing · Plastics ProductsHigh

Plastics & Rubber Manufacturing

ExportGDP $11B
Tariff impact
58/100
Trade flow
Export-heavy
Manufacturing · Machinery ManufacturingHigh

Industrial Machinery & Equipment

BalancedGDP $9.2B
Tariff impact
52/100
Trade flow
Balanced
Manufacturing · Electronic ComponentsModerate

Electronics Manufacturing

ImportGDP $6.8B
Tariff impact
48/100
Trade flow
Import-heavy
Manufacturing · Basic Chemicals & PetrochemicalsHigh

Chemical Manufacturing

ExportGDP $14.5B
Tariff impact
61/100
Trade flow
Export-heavy
Manufacturing · Food ManufacturingHigh

Food & Beverage Processing

ExportGDP $32B
Tariff impact
54/100
Trade flow
Export-heavy
Manufacturing · Wood Product ManufacturingCritical

Wood Products Manufacturing

ExportGDP $8.2B
Tariff impact
78/100
Trade flow
Export-heavy
Manufacturing · Paper ManufacturingModerate

Pulp & Paper Manufacturing

ExportGDP $6.1B
Tariff impact
44/100
Trade flow
Export-heavy
Manufacturing · Textile MillsModerate

Textile & Apparel Manufacturing

ImportGDP $2.8B
Tariff impact
38/100
Trade flow
Import-heavy
Manufacturing · Pharmaceutical & MedicineModerate

Pharmaceutical Manufacturing

ImportGDP $12.5B
Tariff impact
35/100
Trade flow
Import-heavy

Mining & Resources

5 industries · avg impact 23/100

Services

3 industries · avg impact 37/100

Technology

5 industries · avg impact 24/100

Frequently asked questions

Which Canadian industries are most exposed to US tariffs?

Automotive manufacturing, energy (oil and gas), agriculture, and forestry products face the highest exposure due to deep cross-border supply chain integration. These sectors depend heavily on the US market and operate on margins that are particularly sensitive to tariff-driven cost increases.

How is tariff impact score calculated?

The tariff impact score (0-100) combines trade volume exposure, current and projected tariff rates, supply chain substitutability, and sector-specific margin sensitivity. Higher scores indicate industries where tariff changes produce disproportionate operational and financial disruption.

What is the difference between export-heavy and import-heavy industries?

Export-heavy industries send more goods to foreign markets than they import — tariffs abroad reduce their competitiveness. Import-heavy industries depend on foreign inputs — tariffs at home raise their production costs. Balanced industries face exposure in both directions simultaneously.

How does CUSMA protect Canadian industries?

CUSMA provides duty-free or preferential access for qualifying goods, protecting integrated supply chains in automotive, agriculture, and energy. However, protection is contingent on meeting rules of origin requirements, and sectors outside the agreement's scope remain fully exposed to MFN tariff rates.

What mitigation strategies are available for tariff-exposed industries?

Common strategies include supply chain diversification to reduce single-market dependency, tariff engineering through product reclassification, leveraging trade agreement preferences, market diversification toward CPTPP and CETA partners, and operational restructuring to shift value-added activities across jurisdictions.

How are NAICS codes used in industry classification?

The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) provides a standardized framework for categorizing economic activity across Canada, the US, and Mexico. NAICS codes enable consistent measurement of trade flows, GDP contribution, and tariff exposure at the industry level.

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