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EnergyHighNAICS 3241

Petroleum Refining

Petroleum Refineries|Updated 2025-04-15
Tariff impact score
53/100
GDP contribution
$8.5B
Employment
18,000 direct jobs
Trade flow
Balanced
US trade exposure
40% of refined product exports to US
Tariff impact score53
KEY PRODUCTS
  • Motor gasoline
  • Diesel fuel
  • Jet fuel
  • Petrochemical feedstocks
  • Asphalt
  • Lubricants
AFFECTED TARIFF CODES
271027132712
MITIGATION STRATEGIES
  1. 1

    Invest in refinery modernization to process heavier Canadian crude grades

  2. 2

    Develop biofuel co-processing capabilities to meet clean fuel standard mandates

  3. 3

    Pursue petrochemical integration to diversify revenue from fuels-only production

  4. 4

    Explore west-to-east crude pipeline options to reduce import dependence

  5. 5

    Build strategic refined product reserves for supply disruption resilience

CUSMA IMPACT

Refined petroleum products trade duty-free under CUSMA, but competitive dynamics with US Gulf Coast refineries determine market access. Canadian refineries in eastern Canada paradoxically import foreign crude while western Canadian crude is exported to US refineries, reflecting pipeline infrastructure limitations. Carbon pricing asymmetries between Canadian and US jurisdictions create cost competitiveness concerns for Canadian refiners.

SUPPLY CHAIN RISK

Eastern Canadian refineries in New Brunswick, Quebec, and Ontario depend on imported crude transported by tanker, creating maritime supply chain risk. The lack of west-to-east pipeline capacity means Canadian refineries cannot access lower-cost domestic crude. Refinery maintenance cycles and unplanned outages in concentrated facilities create regional fuel supply disruptions.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Canadian refineries operate at smaller scale than US Gulf Coast mega-refineries, resulting in higher per-unit costs. Atlantic Canada refineries (Irving Oil) compete directly with US eastern seaboard refiners. Western Canadian refineries (primarily in Alberta) have feedstock cost advantages but face logistical challenges reaching export markets.

OUTLOOK

The sector faces long-term volume decline from transportation electrification but near-term margin strength from constrained supply. Biofuel integration and petrochemical diversification are essential transition strategies. Rationalization of smaller, less competitive refineries is likely within the decade.

OTHER INDUSTRIES IN ENERGY
Oil ExtractionCritical

Oil Sands & Heavy Crude Production

88/100$48B
Natural Gas ExtractionCritical

Natural Gas Production & Export

73/100$16B
Electric Power GenerationModerate

Electricity & Hydropower

32/100$22B
Uranium Mining & Fuel ProcessingModerate

Uranium Mining & Nuclear Energy

34/100$2.4B
Renewable Electric PowerModerate

Renewable Energy

40/100$5.4B

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