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AgricultureModerateNAICS 1111

Grain & Cereal Crops

Grain Farming|Updated 2025-04-15
Tariff impact score
42/100
GDP contribution
$11.5B
Employment
75,000 direct jobs
Trade flow
Export-heavy
US trade exposure
35% of exports to US (remainder to Asia, Middle East)
Tariff impact score42
KEY PRODUCTS
  • Hard red spring wheat
  • Durum wheat
  • Barley
  • Oats
  • Corn
  • Lentils and pulses
AFFECTED TARIFF CODES
1001100310040713
MITIGATION STRATEGIES
  1. 1

    Diversify export markets with focus on Asia-Pacific through CPTPP access

  2. 2

    Invest in drought-resistant varietals and precision agriculture technologies

  3. 3

    Expand pulse and specialty crop production for plant-based protein demand

  4. 4

    Advocate for grain transportation regulatory reform to improve throughput

  5. 5

    Develop value-added grain processing capacity domestically

CUSMA IMPACT

Grain and cereal trade under CUSMA is largely duty-free, with Canada being a major net exporter. However, US farm subsidy programs and crop insurance create an uneven competitive playing field that pressures Canadian grain prices. Phytosanitary requirements and grade classification disputes periodically disrupt specific grain shipments at border inspection points.

SUPPLY CHAIN RISK

Prairie grain production faces increasing climate volatility, with drought and extreme weather events reducing yield predictability. Rail transportation capacity constraints during harvest periods create bottlenecks that delay export shipments. Port capacity at Vancouver and Thunder Bay limits throughput during peak shipping seasons.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Canada is the world's largest durum wheat exporter and a top-five wheat exporter overall. Competition from Australia, the EU, and Black Sea producers intensifies in global markets. Canadian grain commands premiums for consistent quality and food safety standards in Asian and European markets.

OUTLOOK

Global food security concerns and plant-based protein demand support long-term growth. Climate adaptation investment is critical as prairie growing conditions become less predictable. The sector's diversified export market base provides resilience against bilateral US trade disruptions.

RELATED COUNTRIES

Key trade partners for the grain & cereal crops industry

VNMModerate

Vietnam

42/100$12B
IDNModerate

Indonesia

44/100$6.5B
THAModerate

Thailand

38/100$7B
PHLModerate

Philippines

43/100$3.5B
MYSModerate

Malaysia

32/100$6B
ITALow

Italy

22/100$10B
OTHER INDUSTRIES IN AGRICULTURE
Cattle Ranching & FarmingHigh

Livestock & Beef Production

65/100$9.8B
Dairy Cattle & Milk ProductionHigh

Dairy Industry

55/100$7.2B
Fruit & Vegetable FarmingModerate

Fruits & Vegetables Production

45/100$5.6B
Oilseed FarmingHigh

Canola & Oilseed Production

56/100$13.5B
Specialty Crop FarmingLow

Maple Products & Specialty Agriculture

28/100$850M

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