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IDNModerate

Indonesia

Asia-Pacific|Southeast Asia
Overall risk score
44/100
Trade volume (CAD)
$6.5B
Risk tier
Moderate
Trade relationship
Growing trade partner; CEPA under negotiation
RISK FACTOR BREAKDOWN
Political risk40

World's third-largest democracy with generally stable governance. Decentralization creates complexity across 38 provinces. Resource nationalism and downstream-processing mandates (nickel export ban) signal increasingly interventionist trade policy.

Economic risk40

Largest economy in Southeast Asia with strong commodity base and growing domestic market. Fiscal management is prudent but infrastructure gaps and labor-market rigidities constrain manufacturing competitiveness.

Regulatory risk50

Regulatory complexity is high, with overlapping national and sub-national requirements. The Omnibus Law on job creation aimed to streamline but implementation remains uneven. Mining-sector regulations change frequently.

Supply chain risk45

Major global supplier of nickel, palm oil, and tin. Downstream-processing mandates have disrupted global supply chains. Archipelagic geography creates inherent logistics challenges.

Currency risk45

Indonesian rupiah is among the more volatile emerging-market currencies, sensitive to global risk sentiment and commodity-price cycles. Bank Indonesia actively manages reserves but currency weakness recurs during capital-outflow episodes.

TRADE AGREEMENTS

No bilateral or multilateral trade agreements on file.

TARIFF EXPOSURE

Moderate to High — absence of an FTA means MFN tariffs apply. Indonesia's tariff schedule includes significant duties on agricultural and processed-food imports. A Canada-Indonesia CEPA could substantially improve market access upon completion.

STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS

Indonesia is strategically important for critical-minerals supply chains, particularly nickel for EV batteries. Its large domestic market and ASEAN centrality make it a priority for Canadian trade diversification, but regulatory unpredictability and resource nationalism require careful navigation.

SECTOR VULNERABILITIES

Key sectors exposed to risk in the Indonesia trade corridor

  1. 1

    Mining (nickel, critical minerals)

  2. 2

    Agriculture

  3. 3

    Infrastructure

TRADE FLOWS
Key exports to Canada
  • Rubber
  • Electrical machinery
  • Textiles
  • Palm oil
Key imports from Canada
  • Wheat
  • Potash
  • Machinery
  • Lentils
KEY INDUSTRIES

Canadian industries connected to Indonesia trade flows

ManufacturingHigh

Plastics & Rubber Manufacturing

58/100$11B
ManufacturingHigh

Industrial Machinery & Equipment

52/100$9.2B
ManufacturingHigh

Chemical Manufacturing

61/100$14.5B
ManufacturingModerate

Textile & Apparel Manufacturing

38/100$2.8B
AgricultureModerate

Grain & Cereal Crops

42/100$11.5B
Mining & ResourcesModerate

Potash Mining

36/100$8B
OTHER COUNTRIES IN ASIA-PACIFIC
CHNHigh

China

65/100$115B
JPNLow

Japan

18/100$32B
KORLow

South Korea

22/100$18B
INDModerate

India

45/100$14B
TWNModerate

Taiwan

35/100$11B
VNMModerate

Vietnam

42/100$12B

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