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INDModerate

India

Asia-Pacific|South Asia
Overall risk score
45/100
Trade volume (CAD)
$14B
Risk tier
Moderate
Trade relationship
Growing bilateral trade; no FTA; diplomatic tensions
RISK FACTOR BREAKDOWN
Political risk50

World's largest democracy but bilateral relations with Canada have deteriorated significantly due to diplomatic disputes. Domestic political environment is stable under strong executive leadership, though religious and social tensions persist.

Economic risk35

Fastest-growing major economy with a large, young workforce. Infrastructure investment is accelerating but bureaucratic complexity, uneven development, and fiscal deficits remain constraints on growth quality.

Regulatory risk55

Complex regulatory environment with inconsistent enforcement across states. Foreign investment rules have liberalized but retrospective tax actions and sudden policy changes (export bans on agricultural commodities) create unpredictability.

Supply chain risk45

Growing manufacturing base under 'Make in India' initiatives but infrastructure bottlenecks persist. India is emerging as a China-plus-one destination for global supply chains, creating opportunities for Canadian inputs.

Currency risk40

Rupee is managed by the RBI with a gradual depreciation trend. Capital-account restrictions limit convertibility. Foreign-exchange reserves provide a buffer, but current-account deficits create periodic pressure.

TRADE AGREEMENTS

No bilateral or multilateral trade agreements on file.

TARIFF EXPOSURE

Elevated — absence of an FTA means Canadian exports face MFN tariffs that are among the highest in major economies. India's applied tariff rates on agricultural products (pulses, canola oil) have been subject to sudden increases and export restrictions that directly affect Canadian producers.

STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS

India represents enormous long-term market potential given its demographic trajectory and economic growth, but the current diplomatic climate complicates engagement. Trade negotiations for a CEPA have stalled. Canadian firms should pursue market opportunities while maintaining robust political-risk contingencies.

SECTOR VULNERABILITIES

Key sectors exposed to risk in the India trade corridor

  1. 1

    Agriculture (pulses)

  2. 2

    Potash

  3. 3

    Education services

  4. 4

    Technology

TRADE FLOWS
Key exports to Canada
  • Pharmaceuticals
  • Textiles
  • Gems & jewelry
  • Machinery
Key imports from Canada
  • Pulses (lentils & peas)
  • Potash
  • Newsprint
  • Wood pulp
KEY INDUSTRIES

Canadian industries connected to India trade flows

ManufacturingHigh

Industrial Machinery & Equipment

52/100$9.2B
ManufacturingModerate

Pulp & Paper Manufacturing

44/100$6.1B
ManufacturingModerate

Textile & Apparel Manufacturing

38/100$2.8B
Mining & ResourcesModerate

Potash Mining

36/100$8B
OTHER COUNTRIES IN ASIA-PACIFIC
CHNHigh

China

65/100$115B
JPNLow

Japan

18/100$32B
KORLow

South Korea

22/100$18B
TWNModerate

Taiwan

35/100$11B
VNMModerate

Vietnam

42/100$12B
IDNModerate

Indonesia

44/100$6.5B

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