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ARGHigh

Argentina

Latin America|South America
Overall risk score
62/100
Trade volume (CAD)
$2B
Risk tier
High
Trade relationship
Mercosur member; bilateral trade constrained by macro instability
RISK FACTOR BREAKDOWN
Political risk55

Democratic institutions intact but undergoing significant transformation under the current administration's radical reform agenda. Policy unpredictability is elevated as structural reforms attempt to address decades of interventionism. Social-protest dynamics remain active.

Economic risk75

Large economy with chronic macroeconomic instability including persistent high inflation, currency controls, and recurring sovereign-debt crises. Current government is pursuing aggressive fiscal consolidation and deregulation. Vaca Muerta shale resources are a long-term positive.

Regulatory risk60

Regulatory environment is in flux as the current government dismantles interventionist structures. Capital controls, import licensing, and currency restrictions have historically constrained trade. Deregulation progress is uneven.

Supply chain risk55

Agricultural powerhouse (soybeans, beef, wine) with significant mining potential (lithium). Port and rail infrastructure need investment. Currency and import controls have historically disrupted supply-chain planning.

Currency risk75

Argentine peso has experienced severe depreciation and the country has operated with parallel exchange rates. Current reforms are attempting to unify rates and liberalize the capital account, but currency risk remains among the highest globally.

TRADE AGREEMENTS

No bilateral or multilateral trade agreements on file.

TARIFF EXPOSURE

Elevated — Mercosur's common external tariff applies without FTA preferences. Import licensing and currency controls have historically been more binding constraints than tariffs. Reform trajectory may improve access but uncertainty is high.

STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS

Argentina holds world-class resources in lithium (critical minerals), shale energy (Vaca Muerta), and agriculture. The current reform agenda, if sustained, could transform the operating environment. However, Argentina's history of policy reversals means long-term commitments carry significant political risk. Canadian mining firms are active in Argentine lithium development.

SECTOR VULNERABILITIES

Key sectors exposed to risk in the Argentina trade corridor

  1. 1

    Mining (lithium)

  2. 2

    Agriculture

  3. 3

    Energy (Vaca Muerta)

  4. 4

    Wine

TRADE FLOWS
Key exports to Canada
  • Wine
  • Crude petroleum
  • Aluminum
  • Seafood
Key imports from Canada
  • Machinery
  • Pharmaceutical ingredients
  • Fertilizers
  • Mineral products
KEY INDUSTRIES

Canadian industries connected to Argentina trade flows

ManufacturingCritical

Steel & Aluminum Production

95/100$7.5B
ManufacturingHigh

Industrial Machinery & Equipment

52/100$9.2B
ManufacturingModerate

Pharmaceutical Manufacturing

35/100$12.5B
OTHER COUNTRIES IN LATIN AMERICA
BRAModerate

Brazil

42/100$10B
COLModerate

Colombia

48/100$2.5B
CHLLow

Chile

25/100$3.5B

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