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BRAModerate

Brazil

Latin America|South America
Overall risk score
42/100
Trade volume (CAD)
$10B
Risk tier
Moderate
Trade relationship
Largest Latin American trade partner; no bilateral FTA
RISK FACTOR BREAKDOWN
Political risk40

Federal presidential democracy with strong democratic institutions. Political polarization remains elevated but institutional checks and balances have held. Environmental policy and Amazon governance attract international scrutiny and affect trade relations.

Economic risk40

Largest economy in Latin America with diversified agriculture, mining, and manufacturing sectors. Growth is constrained by fiscal rigidity, high interest rates, and infrastructure deficits. Agricultural sector is a global powerhouse.

Regulatory risk50

Complex, multi-layered regulatory environment across federal, state, and municipal jurisdictions. Tax system is notoriously complex (recent reform addresses this). Environmental regulations are extensive but enforcement is variable, particularly in the Amazon.

Supply chain risk40

Major global supplier of agricultural commodities (soybeans, beef, coffee) and iron ore. Logistics infrastructure is road-dependent with significant port congestion at Santos. Internal distances and customs complexity add costs.

Currency risk45

Brazilian real is volatile and sensitive to global risk appetite, domestic politics, and commodity prices. Central bank management is credible but carry-trade dynamics amplify swings. Hedging costs are elevated.

TRADE AGREEMENTS

No bilateral or multilateral trade agreements on file.

TARIFF EXPOSURE

Moderate to High — no bilateral FTA; Mercosur's common external tariff applies. Brazil's tariffs on Canadian manufactured goods and processed foods are significant. Canada-Mercosur FTA negotiations would substantially improve access if concluded.

STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS

Brazil is Canada's most important trade partner in Latin America and a global agricultural superpower. Complementarities are strong: Brazilian agriculture is a major consumer of Canadian potash, while Brazil exports iron ore and coffee to Canada. A Mercosur trade agreement would be transformational. Environmental governance and deforestation concerns require ESG due diligence.

SECTOR VULNERABILITIES

Key sectors exposed to risk in the Brazil trade corridor

  1. 1

    Agriculture

  2. 2

    Mining

  3. 3

    Fertilizers (potash)

  4. 4

    Forestry

TRADE FLOWS
Key exports to Canada
  • Iron ore
  • Coffee
  • Crude petroleum
  • Aluminum
Key imports from Canada
  • Fertilizers (potash)
  • Machinery
  • Wheat
  • Coal
KEY INDUSTRIES

Canadian industries connected to Brazil trade flows

ManufacturingCritical

Steel & Aluminum Production

95/100$7.5B
ManufacturingHigh

Industrial Machinery & Equipment

52/100$9.2B
AgricultureModerate

Grain & Cereal Crops

42/100$11.5B
OTHER COUNTRIES IN LATIN AMERICA
COLModerate

Colombia

48/100$2.5B
CHLLow

Chile

25/100$3.5B
ARGHigh

Argentina

62/100$2B

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